The only game I predicted right last week was the game I had the most vested interest in. I suppose that's a solid win though. Still, who saw the Jets breaking Tom Brady's foot, and by doing so took away his confidence? And who could've predicted that Mark "High School Talent" Sanchez would grow into the position as the game went on? I mean, that guy looked bad through the first quarter. It was like he thought his receiving core was 7 feet tall by 5 feet wide. I digress.
Excellent win for the Steelers last week. That game was what we all thought it would be. Tied halfway through the 4th with as much blood on the uniforms as snow and mud. Big Ben was just that, Big. Way to throw it to the rookie, who was the last guy on the field anyone thought was getting the ball. This game was like sportsporn, even women watched.
Then the egg of the season was laid by the Atlanta Falcons. Home field advantage. Number 1 vs Number 6. Arguably the most well rounded offense in the league all year. Everyone in Atlanta already had their tickets for the Bears coming in next week. Then Matty Ice goes out there and shows his playoff experience. I admit, I was in the same mindframe as those Hotlanta dwellers. I know the Pack has been hot of late, but come on! The Falcons took care of anyone and everyone on the schedule this season, including the Packers! I guess I had it coming though. I wanted the Packers to lose...no, I needed the Packers to lose. I am a football fan that can not stand how all the experts are lifting up Aaron Rogers as the savior of the NFL. The dude can't close out games where he's being tested. Sure he can win the games that they score 40 points or more, but look at the games where they're held to 20 points or less. The Packer are 3-5 in those games. One of those wins was to a Bears team with nothing to play for other than beating a rival. Packers win 10 - 3. Another win was a 9 - 0 win over the Jets. Granted both teams are in the final four, but I think any footballer with half a brain knows that Rex and the rest of the Jets were seriously overlooking the Packers at that time. The Packers were 4 - 3 going into that game, and the Jets were 5 - 1. Keep in mind, the Jets had already knocked off the New England "Best Team That Ever Lived" Patriots in week 2, and lost by 1 point to the Ravens (10 - 9) in week 1.
Still, here we are two weeks from the Super Bowl and the matchups couldn't be more even. First we have the:
Packers (-3.5) @ Bears
The season series was split, each winning on it's home turf. In these games, the Pack outscored the Bears 27 - 23. Between the two meetings, the QB averages look something like this:
Aaron Rogers line: 273 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
Jay Cutlers line: 195 YDS, 0.5 TD, 1.5 INT
Neither one of these guys would be picked to start a fantasy matchup with numbers like these.
As for the running game, Cutler had the game high on game 1 (37 yds), and Forte had the high for game 2 (91 yds). For the Packers, game 1 went to John Kuhn (31 yds), and game 2 was Rogers (21 yds). Again, no real advantage here. This game is going to come down to defense. Neither of these teams is going to put up 30+ points on each other, it's just not gonna happen. The Bears are 20th overall in Pass Yards Per Game, giving up 224 per. They are 2nd in the NFL in Rush Yards Per Game, giving up 90 per. The Packers are 5th overall in Pass Yards Per Game with 194 per, and 18th overall in Rush yards Per Game with 115 per. The Bears to have an edge in Special Teams with Devin Hester, but that can be equalized by simply not kicking to him.
With all that being said, these two teams fit each others averages almost perfectly. The Bears will give up around 250 yards passing to Rogers, and they'll stuff Starks out of the backfield for about 50. Rogers will throw a touchdown and a pick, and I see them scoring 14 points.
The Bears will have just under 200 yards passing with Cutler throwing a pick, and Forte will rush for close to the century mark and score a touchdown. I see them scoring 13 points.
Prediction:
Packers 14 - 13
sidenote: My fiance read my pick here and was disgusted with me. Her words were: "the Bears are gonna be pissed. I think they feel they have something to prove here, and will come out on top." We shall see...
Jets @ Steelers (-3.5)
Again, here is a game that is virtually a tie. I was honestly surprised by Sanchez numbers upon seeing them this week. Let's compare him to Big Ben, shall we?
| B. Roethlisberger | 61.7 | 3200 | 17 | 5 |
Roethlisberger 61.7%, 3200 YDS, 17 TD, 5 INT
Sanchez 54.8%, 3291 YDS, 17 TD, 13 INT
Strikingly similar. Remember, however, Ben didn't play until week 5, so his numbers could go up almost 25%. Still, we can only go by what is factual now, not on speculation. I can't help but feel like these numbers just don't do it. I mean, is it just me, or does Ben seem like he's light years better than Sanchez? Am I giving Ben too much credit, or not enough to Sanchez? You tell me.
*she's still going off about my Packers/Bears prediction*
I like the Jets running game in this one. They have a legit two man back field with Tomlinson and Greene. Keep in mind as well that Greene shows up big in the playoffs. This is the 2nd year in a row that Green has out performed his regular season averages in the playoffs. The Steelers have Mendenhall, who put up almost 1300 yds and 13 TD's this year, but he doesn't have a solid back up by any stretch of the imagination. They might as well still have Willie Parker back there running the ball.
Again, however, this game is going to come down to defense. The Steelers are 12th in Pass Yards Per (214), and the Jets are 6th (200). The Steelers are 1st in Rush Yards Per (62), and the Jets are 3rd (90). Steelers are giving up 14.5 points per game, and the Jets are just under 20 points per game allowed. Neither team has excellent special teams, so no advantage there.
I have to go with my gut and the performance of Roethlisbeger in nearly all of the games he's played in. Combined with Troy on the other side, I have to go with the Steelers in a very entertaining game.
Prediction:
Steelers 21 - 14
I am 1 - 3 so far in the playoffs this year. Which means that no one, under any circumstances, should use my picks if they're betting money. Let's get ready for a great week of football!
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